Stories

A decade of airline listings — IndiGo +82%, Frontier taken private, Spirit bankrupt. What the 2021 IPO cluster showed, what separates winners from casualties, and whether the window looks open in 2026.

Airbus has set a new December delivery record five years running — and followed each one with a January collapse. Five years of line-item delivery data show a production system that breathes in an annual rhythm, not a monthly one — and what that means for anyone reading delivery headlines.

Airlines' own annual reports disclose exactly who locked in fuel prices — and who is fully exposed. Ryanair: 90% hedged. United, American: zero. Delta owns a refinery. And every hedge expires.

SAF costs 3–5× more than Jet-A. The EU mandates 20% blending by 2035. At a 4× premium with fuel at 22% of revenue, that is a 13-point cost increase. Most airlines run 3–8% net margins. The arithmetic is not gentle.

16,018 aircraft. At current production rates, clearing the combined Airbus-Boeing order book takes until 2037. What slot scarcity, the "just-in-case" spiral, and COVID fragility mean for every order announcement you read.